WORKING PAPERDECEMBER 2022 | CYBER CONFLICT IN THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR Russia’s Wartime Cyber Operations in Ukraine: Military Impacts, Influences, and Implications Jon BatemanRussia’s Wartime Cyber Operations in Ukraine: Military Impacts, Influences, and Implications Jon Bateman© 2022 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved. Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Please direct inquiries to: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Publications Department 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 P: + 1 202 483 7600 F: + 1 202 483 1840 CarnegieEndowment.org This publication can be downloaded at no cost at CarnegieEndowment.org.Contents Cyber Conflict in the Russia-Ukraine War vii Summary 1 How Militarily Effective Have Russia’s Cyber 5 Operations Been in Ukraine? Methodology 6 Fires 8 Intelligence Collection 22 Why Have Russian Cyber Operations Not Had 32 Greater Strategic Impact? Russian Planning, Organization, and Doctrine 34 Russian Cyber Capability and Capacity 36 Russian Restraint 38 Russian Way of War 39 Ukrainian Cyber Architecture 40 Ukrainian Cyber Defenses 41 Foreign Support to Ukraine 42 Conclusion 44What Lessons Apply to Other States’ Military 44 Cyber Efforts? Cyber Offense 44 Cyber Defense 46 Conclusion 48 About the Author 49 Acknowledgments 49 Notes 51 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 69vii Cyber Conflict in the Russia-Ukraine War The war in Ukraine is the largest military conflict of the cyber age and the first to incorporate such significant levels of cyber operations on all sides. Carnegie’s series “Cyber Conflict in the Russia-Ukraine War” represents our first offerings in what will be a long, global effort to understand and learn from the cyber elements of the Ukraine war. We welcome queries from other authors interested in contributing to this endeavor by having us publish their work. If you would like to learn more, please contact Arthur Nelson at [email protected] . Publications in this series: • “Evaluating the International Support to Ukrainian Cyber Defense,” Nick Beecroft, November 3, 2022 • “Cyber Operations in Ukraine: Russia’s Unmet Expectations,” Gavin Wilde, December 12, 2022 • “Russia’s Wartime Cyber Operations in Ukraine: Military Impacts, Influences, and Implications,” Jon Bateman, December 15, 2022